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Escalating legal troubles spell bad news for Trump
Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead. A brief explanation of the hedging process…
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How to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials
Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full first-term in office has slipped to 61% from around 68%. At yesterday’s low point, it was just 58%. As ever with…
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Prepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears
Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald Trump saga. Bettors following the various Trump Exit Date and 2020 Election markets should be on red alert,…
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Will the Blue Wave sweep a Trump heartland?
Since Donald Trump became President, his Democrat opponents have dominated a spate of special elections, thanks in no small part to a remarkable surge in enthusiasm and turnout. Many of us firmly believe this ‘Blue Wave’ will carry them to a majority in the House of Representatives in November. Tonight, we will get the best…
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Are Trump betting markets underestimating Mueller?
Market sentiment towards Donald Trump is shifting significantly and, perhaps more pertinently, suddenly seems impervious to the relentless scandal and drama associated with this president. Back at the start of November, following indictments against four members of the Trump campaign, our market regarding whether or not he serves a full term in office spiked. At…
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Oprah for President? Six celebrities in contention for 2020
It was inevitable once Donald Trump had changed the game – betting an a US Presidential Election would never be the same again. The fields are no longer merely Republican and Democrat politicians but a wide array of characters from popular culture and business. At this early stage at least, celebrities are the candidates that…
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The Trump ship may finally sink in 2018
In a stark change from the trajectory of recent years, Betfair markets are taking a steadily improving view of Donald Trump’s prospects. From a low point of 43% in the wake of indictments related to the Russia investigation, the US President is now rated 53% likely to survive a full-term in office at odds of…
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Five political markets to follow in 2018
The date of the next UK General Election Whilst political betting is fast becoming a global phenomenon, nothing still quite compares to an election in the country that revolutionised it. Each of the last four years has seen a major domestic poll and our latest General Election involved a wider array of speciality markets than…
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2017 Review: The Year of the Liberal Backlash
For the third straight year, Betfair markets illustrated the new politics. Highly unpredictable, with conventional wisdom in crisis and unprecedented volatility. We have seen an outsider, with no party infrastructure, gatecrash the French presidency. The Democrats won Alabama. And Jeremy Corbyn came within a few constituencies of pulling off the greatest upset in the history…
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Toxic Moore means a win win scenario for Democrats
If you thought US politics would return to normality soon, tonight’s special election in Alabama should end that delusion. A race that would in normal times be entirely predictable and barely noted beyond the keenest followers has become a huge international story – for what it represents, the implications and because it remains on a…