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How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS
One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding alternatives to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. First there was months of speculation about Trump being blocked at the Republican Convention – prompting gambles about several…
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Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance
Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it…
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Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained
As implied in yesterday’s piece, I could hardly be more confident about my long-running pro-Clinton positions. Trump is headed for a big defeat and the task is to measure the scale of it. At this stage, I’m not altering the published portfolio. I’m heavily invested in a big Clinton victory and expect the market will…
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Locked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat
If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails Hillary Clinton across a slate of national polls by an average 7% and sometimes double-digit margins. By comparison, at this stage four…
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Trump’s campaign in crisis ahead of St Louis debate
Losing the opening TV debate need not necessarily spell disaster for a presidential campaign. Four years ago, Barack Obama was widely assumed to have lost to Mitt Romney. The polls moved briefly towards Romney but the president bounced back in the final two en route to a landslide. A good omen, then, for Donald Trump…
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Could Trump’s campaign implode or meltdown?
As momentum swings firmly towards Hillary Clinton, there will inevitably be talk of a Donald Trump comeback. There is still a month to go and the media needs a close race for rating purposes. However at the risk of being accused of talking up my book, we need to equally discuss just how bad things could get…
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Are Trump’s tax returns merely the first October Surprise?
No US Presidential Election would be complete without at least speculation of the infamous ‘October Surprise’. The gamechanging event, revelation or scandal that transforms the race. Just three days into the month, we already have a prime contender. On Saturday night, the US media went into a frenzy – even momentarily diverting attention from the…
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New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio
Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday. Another #Election2016 bet: 20 units Hillary Clinton @ 1.73 for Betfair's +49.5…
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My trading plan for the electoral college
I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September…
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Five key takeaways from the first Presidential debate
1 Clinton reversed a bad news cycle to resume pole position Heading into Monday’s opening debate, Hillary Clinton backers had plenty to worry about. A combination of health concerns, intense scrutiny of her e-mails and foundation, plus some improved performances from Donald Trump had whittled down a substantial poll lead to a virtual dead-heat. Her…