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5 dynamics that could determine the first debate
1 Hillary Clinton’s health and appearance One might like to imagine that a debate to determine leader of the free world would be settled on a sombre analysis of their respective policy credentials, but it has never been the case. Or at least since presidential debates became televised in 1960. Famously, Richard Nixon won that…
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Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election
Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed and distrusted like never before, Trump’s outsider status captivated a conservative audience that yearns for someone to shake up the establishment. Entering the final…
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In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?
There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that…
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Measuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum
We’ve just seen two milestones passed on Betfair’s Next President market. First, the total matched has passed $50M – my estimate is it will go beyond $200M by polling day. Second and more significantly, Donald Trump has passed another threshold in trading below [3.0]. At [2.96], equivalent to a 34% chance, he’s at his lowest odds yet…
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Clinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage
Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After the latest bout of market madness, it deserves to be number one. From the moment news broke about a ‘medical…
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Extensive interview with Business Insider
Just before leaving for the States last weekend, I met up with Adam Payne from Business Insider UK for an extensive interview. An exciting opportunity, as I love this magazine and it’s willingness to stray from the conventional wisdom of longer established business press when necessary. We discussed my 15 year career as a professional…
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Just how damaged is Hillary Clinton?
She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have handpicked a more toxic opponent than Donald Trump, and enjoys a massive advantage in terms of campaign organisation. Yet Democrats are getting worried…
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Praising Putin could halt Trump’s recent progress
Judging by the immediate reaction on social media, I wasn’t alone in finding Wednesday’s NBC Commander In Chief forum a profoundly depressing affair. On the worst interpretation, both Clinton and Trump were allowed to tell straightforward lies. At best, highly dubious comments went unscrutinised. Trump’s claim that he was always against the 2003 Iraq war…
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5 key stories that could shape the late narrative
In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this century, but a bad couple of weeks has seen her odds drift back to roughly where they were in July, before gaining a…
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Trump’s immigration balancing act looks shaky
After a generally disastrous run ever since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump has just enjoyed a good week. Though still trailing in the polls and historically weak on Betfair markets, both of those indicators have moved in his favour. At odds of 4.0, he’s now rated 25% likely to be Next President, up from…