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Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?
So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he…
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Trump on the brink of victory ahead of Indiana
A presidential match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever after the front-runners totally dominated Tuesday’s round of primaries in the North-East. Clinton is now just 1.04 to be the Democrat Nominee and [1.34] to become Next President, which equates to 96% and 75% chances respectively. On the Republican side, Trump…
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#NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem
Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the mark he was before a predictable loss in Wisconsin, which caused a dramatic over-reaction and slide to a trough of 44%. On that basis, we can assume that by the…
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Front-runners to regain momentum in New York
When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance…
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Is Donald Trump now being under-rated?
If not, there must be huge value to be found elsewhere Ahead of what seems a likely defeat tonight in Wisconsin, market support for Donald Trump continues to deteriorate. At 2.06 this morning, the GOP front-runner is the biggest odds he’s been since winning South Carolina in February to become the Republican Nominee. There are good…
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Trump weakening on Betfair as convention drama looms
Betfair punters are fast losing faith in Donald Trump after a terrible week. From odds of 1.4 last weekend, equivalent to a 71% rating to win the Republican Nomination, the front-runner has drifted markedly on the exchange to 2.0 or 50%. In the meantime, principal rival Ted Cruz’s odds have more than halved from 8.4…
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#Election2016 betting portfolio update
After nine months of betting, my full election bets portfolio page is getting ever harder to keep track of, so here’s some simpler profit and loss figures for the Republican Nominee and Next President markets, along with some thoughts about next steps. First, a new position, taking 8 units profit out of my earlier position on Paul Ryan at 400.0. Originally, a…
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Markets swing towards a contested convention
If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread…
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Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump
As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to…
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Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump
As in everything, the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to…