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Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
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Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump. Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race. First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal…
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Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market…
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GOPDebate verdict: Rubio the latest victim of GOP cage fight
I’ve observed before how the size and brutal nature of the race to be GOP nominee is doing the party no favours, damaging one candidate after another. In the final debate before Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, the last undamaged figure took a beating. My main sentiment this morning is relief that I’ve only staked…
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Will a late Rubio surge deny Trump again?
Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation. New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016 The political betting story of this…
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New bet: Rubio stake covered, leaving big risk-free bet
One new position to report, as advised on Twitter yesterday. I’ve laid back the 25 units stake from Saturday’s bet on Marco Rubio to be Next President. New bet: I've laid the 25 unit stake back of previous Marco Rubio for president bet at 4.2. Leaves risk free bet to win 105 units. — Political…
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Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up
Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections. Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating…
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Betting markets still favour Clinton in Iowa
As the traditional opening leg of the nomination process, the Iowa caucuses are always a big, worldwide media story. Particularly so in the United Kingdom, and not just because of our ‘special relationship’ with the USA. Britain is a big political market and also home to the world’s most sophisticated betting industry – even more…
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New bets: Why I’m switching away from Clinton, for now
With Iowa too close to call, there’s no short-term betting mileage in our earlier bet In order to secure a profit over the long-term – and my US election portfolio has nine months left to run – one needs to switch positions frequently, banking profits where possible, and also accepting a small lose when prudent. These…
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New bet on Marco Rubio for President: Here’s why.
We’re already on Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee. Backing Marco Rubio now is the perfect cover. As promised when advising this bet on Twitter yet, some more detailed reasoning. Even after banking a profit from my initial position on Cruz, he could net a further 250 units profit. It makes perfect sense to cover…