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New position: Simple maths make Bernie a great trade
New Hampshire progress means Sanders’ current odds are all wrong Two essential components of successful gambling, (trading is a more accurate term), are timing and the ability to do basic maths. Get those two things right and one need not necessarily predict winners. That is the logic behind my latest position on the U.S. Election,…
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How and why New Hampshire could shape the election
At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict the New Hampshire Primary Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates –…
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Six political betting markets to watch in 2016
2016 looks set to be the biggest year in political betting history, with the US Presidential Election taking centre-stage plus various big contests in the UK. Here, for @BetfairExchange, I look forward to six particularly exciting markets. US Presidential Election – Republican Nominee There’s no question which country’s politics will produce the most betting action during 2016.…
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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton
Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view,…
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The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?
Trump may alienate supporters if attacking Cruz too hard It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee. Why…
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Clinton gains momentum as Donald Trump threatens to split the GOP
Democrat favourite shortens up on Betfair in response to GOP turmoil Jeb Bush’s Presidential campaign has hardly been the most effective, but the one-time runaway favourite for the Republican Nomination made perhaps his most prescient intervention last week, wondering whether Donald Trump had cooked up a deal with his old pal Hillary Clinton. For the…
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Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream
Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s…
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Has Donald Trump gone too far this time?
Trump condemned across GOP spectrum over call to ban Muslims Considering the election isn’t until next November and even the first primary nearly two months away, the liquidity and volatility on Betfair’s US Presidential Election markets is unprecedented. The reason? As illustrated by record audiences for the TV debates, Donald Trump’s candidacy has captured public interest.…
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Donald Trump odds hit their shortest yet, but beware underlying poll numbers
Front-runner remains well behind in favorability among GOP supporters After nearly six months topping the polls for Republican Nominee, Donald Trump continues to confound conventional wisdom. Rather than falling away under scrutiny as the race gets serious, two surveys out yesterday showed the billionaire significantly extending his national lead. Bloomberg record him 4% ahead, PPP…