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Betting markets dismiss Biden, but are they premature?
Joe Biden is friendless on Betfair There’s no question who has fared best on the markets since Tuesday’s opening Democrat debate. Hillary Clinton begun the evening as a 68% chance to win her party’s nomination. She is now rated 76% likely. For the Presidency, her rating jumped from 39% pre-debate to the current 43%. Those…
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Biden indecision leaves the way clear for Clinton
Strong debate performance eases party nerves and puts Hillary in pole position While the early election coverage has principally focused on the huge Trump-dominated field for the race to be Republican Nominee, recent news regarding the Democrat contest has been almost relentlessly bad for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Though hot favourite, rated up to 50% likely…
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Will this be the night Bernie breaks through?
Democrat outsider is the day’s big market mover on Betfair Money is pouring in on Betfair for Bernie Sanders in the run-up to tonight’s Democratic Party debate on CNN. The 74 year-old Vermont Senator has reached his highest rating yet, at 15% to win the Nomination and 8% for the Presidency. Before reading too much into this…
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GOP outsiders remain cheap bet or trading options
The gap between polls and punditry has never been greater In what seems like the most open, uncertain election of all-time; whose judgement should we most trust? Answer that question and there are fortunes to be won predicting the result. If only it were that straightforward! Right now, all the usual indicators are pointing in different…
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Is Romney right to say a mainstream Republican will emerge?
What if too many candidates split the ‘mainstream’ vote? Having contested the last two nomination processes through to the death, few people better understand what it will take to win this year’s Republican race than Mitt Romney. Romney weighed in with his assessment of the current contest today and, largely, I agree with his analysis.…
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7 reasons why Jeb Bush won’t win the Republican Nomination
With an enormous election war chest, winning record and instant name recognition, Jeb Bush has been red-hot favourite on Betfair for the Republican Nomination ever since declaring. Paul Krishnamurty, however, believes his bid is ultimately doomed, for the following seven reasons. 1) Early favourites in recent GOP contests have a terrible record Betting markets have…
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Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair
Florida senator closes in on Jeb Bush for GOP favouritism With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are…
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Is the Trump bandwagon grinding to a halt?
Front-runner in GOP polls slips further behind on Betfair markets From the outset of his bid for the Republican Nomination, Donald Trump has monopolised media attention, driving record TV ratings for both debates. The Betfair markets, however, have never truly bought it and after a difficult week for the front-runner, confidence is waning fast. Click…
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Who benefits most from Scott Walker’s exit?
Cruz will last the distance as rivals begin to fall away Slowly but surely, the Republican field is whittling down towards a more manageable number, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker the latest to accept inevitable defeat. Considering he was second favourite for the nomination just a couple of months ago, this is a particularly significant development.…
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Political Betting on the 2016 US Election!
Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016. I should point out at…