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Polls dismiss Trump’s comeback narrative but will the market react?
“Most significantly, the state that has seen the worst violence in recent days shows no sign of turning towards Trump. On the day the President made his controversial visit to Wisconsin, respective surveys from Fox News (A-) and Morning Consult (B/C) recorded Biden 8% and 10%.”
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US Election: Will protests and violence help Trump?
“One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland.”
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US Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high
“Both previous incumbents to enjoy a ‘double convention bounce’ went on to win - George W Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012.”
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US Election: Kamala Harris is a risk that could backfire on Biden
Anyone labouring under the illusion that this will be an easy ride, in which her qualities are celebrated, the rationale of her arguments win out, that her character and reputation won’t be torn to shreds, has never watched a US election.
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Why Do The Election Odds Differ From Polls? Eight Explanations
“US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed.”
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Democrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy
“I’m particularly struck by Kasich’s support, as it is coming from a frontline politician. A former Governor of a bellwether state - Ohio.”
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US Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update
“In a more conventional two-horse race than 2016, Trump needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.”
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Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
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Democrat VP Betting: Can we trust the Kamala gamble?
This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama.