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Polls Make Grim Reading For Trump and Republicans
The trends we are seeing now are not merely driven by the recent effect of coronavirus but are long-term. They reflect what appears to be a marked shift away from the Republicans since Trump took office.
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Five Narratives That Could Determine the Election
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 19th May 2020 Both the polls and betting odds are remarkably stable. According to the Betfair Exchange, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of re-election at odds of 2.06, compared to 42% for Joe Biden at 2.38. Meanwhile, the constant swirl of rumour and conspiracy surrounding both major…
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Will Trump’s Scandals Finally Catch Up With Him?
If the Supreme Court rules against him, Trump will likely have to release several years of tax returns and loan agreements with Deutsche Bank…This is arguably the riskiest moment of his entire career.
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Trump Needs a Strong Third Party Challenge But Will He Get It?
There are no polling signals to suggest Trump will improve on his 46.1% vote share. In an extensive recent interview for The Political Trade podcast, former Bill Clinton advisor James Carville booked Trump’s share in November at 44.5%.
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The Electoral Map Looks Bad For Trump – Here’s How To Play It
“Six months out from polling day, the picture for the incumbent is not promising.”
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Democrat VP Betting – My Latest Top-Ten Rankings
“A young, pragmatic female Governor taking on Trump could be of great assistance to the ageing former VP and Whitmer will play well in the Mid-West.”
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US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?
“This cycle has been rife with rumours of a Democrat fix for months. That a brokered convention would result in the DNC imposing somebody who hadn’t even entered the primaries.”
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Extensive Interview For “The Political Trade” Podcast
Earlier this week, I enjoyed a long conversation with Jeff Joseph and Mike Reddy for “The Political Trade” – the podcast associated with Luckbox magazine. Our wide-ranging discussion involved the development and wider trends within political betting, as well of course as extensive analysis of the 2020 election. It was truly an honour to be…
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US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump
“What is clear is that picking fights with state governors such as Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is counter to majority opinion in individual states. So too the anti-lockdown protests from his supporters.”
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Who Should We Follow in 2020 – Polls or Betting Markets?
“We are still around two hundred days out so plenty can change. However right now, there is a vast disparity between what the polls imply and the weight of money in betting markets.”