Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour.
2 new by-election bets: Backed UKIP 20 units @ Evens for Stoke; Laid (opposed) Labour 15 units @ 3.1 for Copeland.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26, 2017
Another new bet: 30 units Jeremy Corbyn to go before next election @ 1.8 https://t.co/qbglsgj6dv
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26, 2017
The news just doesn’t get any better for Jeremy Corbyn. Facing yet another rebellion from his MPs, this time over the Article 50 vote, today’s Yougov poll puts Labour 16% behind the Tories. Now, the market signals for next month’s two by-elections project historic defeats that would plunge his troubled reign into a potentially terminal crisis.
In Copeland, the Conservatives remain firm 1.63 favourites, despite Labour holding the Cumbrian seat since the 1930s. At 3.0, Betfair punters give them just a 33% chance of retaining it.
Defeat there will be a disaster, though not necessarily terminal for Corbyn, because Labour are already expected to lose what was already a fairly tight seat. This relatively old, white, Brexit-supporting electorate, in an area dominated by the nuclear industry, is precisely the type that feels alienated from ‘metropolitan Labour’ and in particular the leader’s socially liberal, left-wing, anti-Trident platform.
To lose a seat like Stoke, on the other hand, would confirm that Labour are genuinely facing an existential crisis. Theresa May’s party aren’t a problem here and have reportedly given up, leaving the path clear for UKIP to sweep through in another heavily pro-Brexit seat.
One response to “Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism”
Voters in both by-elections should realise that UKIP is not an alternative if they want a stop to immigration and preference given to native British people in their own country. UKIP spokesman John Bickley told me that the nationality and ethnicity of immigrants is irrelevant (!!) it is what they bring to the economy. I can find voters a dozen Tory or Labour MPs who say exactly the same. UKIP is a continuation of the same. It’s immigration policies are controlled by the UN Declaration of Human Rights, as are the other parties.!!