This article first appeared on betting.betfair.com on Wednesday 22nd May. Voting has since closed in the UK but the results are not declared until Sunday night and in-play betting is available on Betfair.
As we reach the end of another febrile day in Westminster involving Andrea Leadsom’s resignation and more rumours of Theresa May’s imminent demise, it is time for what could prove the most transformative election any of us can remember.
Voting for the European Parliamentary Elections commences on Thursday morning but bettors should note that no results will be announced until Sunday night from 10pm. All the exchange markets will therefore be in-play over the next four days.
Brexit Party set for massive win
There are still plenty of differentials between polling companies but all are united in expectation of a massive win for the Brexit Party, who are now priced at just 1.02 to win Most Seats. Here are some final vote share estimates.
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 35% (+9)
LAB: 18% (-4)
LDEM: 17% (-2)
CON: 12% (-)
GRN: 8% (-2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)via @BMGResearch
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 22, 2019
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 27%
LAB: 24%
LDEM: 15%
CON: 13%
GRN: 8%
CHUK: 5%via @KantarPublic, 14 – 21 May
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 22, 2019
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 30% (+10)
LAB: 25% (-8)
LDEM: 15% (+8)
CON: 12% (-8)
GRN: 7% (+3)
CHUK: 3% (-2)
UKIP: 3% (-2)via @Panelbase, 14 – 21 May
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 22, 2019
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 38% (+4)
LAB: 17% (-3)
LDEM: 15% (-)
CON: 12% (-)
GRN: 7% (+1)
CHUK: 3% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-)via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 16 May— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 22, 2019
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 19% (+2)
LAB: 13% (-2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
CON: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)via @YouGov, 19 – 21 May
Chgs. w/ 17 May— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 21, 2019
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 32% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-2)
CON: 12% (+3)
GRN: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 5% (+1)
UKIP 3% (+1)via @ComRes, 13 – 17 May
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 21, 2019
Check the voting system before betting
In order to calculate how vote shares will translate into seats, this explanation of the D’Hondt voting system is invaluable.
Seats are allocated in 11 different regions so we need to check the figures for each. Indeed national swing is unlikely to be consistent due to tactical voting.
Social media is awash with advice for Remainers looking to maximise their vote. In England that will aid the Lib Dems and Greens but the numbers in Scotland and Wales suggest the SNP and Plaid Cymru will be the principal beneficiary.
Labour and Lib Dems locked in race for second
Perhaps the biggest open question regards who will finish second. For most of the period, Labour have been well ahead but the last week has seen a big Lib Dem surge at their expense – a predictable punishment for Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit fence-sitting.