When Theresa May called this election seven weeks ago, the overwhelming consensus predicted a landslide victory. Any non-partisan voices suggesting Labour could put up a fight, let alone deny the Tories a majority, were extremely hard to find. Yet here we are on election eve and there are plenty of punters willing to stake sizeable amounts on precisely that, or even Jeremy Corbyn to become PM.
I am not among them. In fact, while the general narrative implies a dramatic turnaround, my positions haven’t changed much at all. I began by arguing that Labour’s resilience was being underestimated, and that the English anti-Tory vote had nowhere else to go. That initial bet on Over 177.5 seats has since shortened from 3.5 to 1.3. Given that my final prediction has them on 208, there’s no plan to cover. Here’s my complete predictions for the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales.
CONSERVATIVE 366
LABOUR 208
SNP 47
LIB DEM 6
PLAID CYMRU 4
GREENS 1
CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 82