At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict the  New Hampshire Primary

Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates – less than 1% of the final count is up for grabs.

Not even because it is a particularly reliable indicator of the eventual nominees – in 1984, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2008, one of the two winning candidates failed to go on and secure their party’s nomination..

Rather the importance of New Hampshire is all about perceived electability and that most precious electoral asset – momentum.

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