Back in April, I explained the unique opportunities to hedge between various different, yet related, markets regarding Donald Trump’s future. While those odds have since shifted a little towards the president’s favour, the angle still offers trading mileage and the most recent signals point towards more drama ahead.
A brief explanation of the hedging process
First, a broad recap of the hedging plan. On one side, we can lay Trump to win the 2020 Election at 2.58 and/or to be the Republican Nominee at 1.41. On the other we can lay him to leave office in 2018 at 13.0, back him to survive merely until 1/1/2020 at 1.25 or complete a full-term at 1.37. The latter price has just moved notably, drifting from 1.27.
Obviously, winning in 2020 depends on surviving and being the GOP candidate. By the time the primaries begin in January 2020, these survival targets will be either settled or all but settled.
If taking both sides of the position, the plan at that stage would be to reinvest the survival profits into either the nomination or presidency market. For clarification of this strategy, either check out the notes at the end of that earlier piece, or feel free to get in touch via Twitter. My call is that by early 2020, we will have the option to cash out for profit.
US opinion remains divided and entrenched
Considering how this presidency is literally a 24/7 rolling controversy, the stability of polls is remarkable. Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly this year but remains firmly underwater, as it has since the 2016 primaries. If you expected good economic figures or the Helsinki summit would spark a shift in either direction, think again.