The Political Gambler

New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio

Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday.

To be clear, these are not definitive predictions. Along with my massive position on Clinton to become president, I’m taking a view that the odds will move in her direction as polling day nears and as the market factors in fundamentals such as the electoral college.

If and when they do, the option to hedge between various different markets will become available. For a guide towards what such a strategy may look like, check out the way I played the Brexit markets.

Also, this may be the best time to play, in advance of poll movements in the wake of her one-sided debate victory and a truly terrible news cycle for Trump. As I’ve said throughout, we cannot rule out a Trump implosion – in which case we’ll be sitting very pretty with these bets. Nevertheless for now, my risk is massive.

So why are these bets value? Well, either the electoral college market is wrong or the handicaps are. Because I’ve just taken 3.1 (32%) about Clinton getting 319 electoral college votes or more. Yet the combined odds of 330-359 and 360 plus – 4.0 and 7.0 respectively – equates to 2.55 (39%).

In other words we could back her to win the handicap, then lay (oppose) those two higher bands, guarantee making money while leaving 319-329 as a massive profit where both bets win. And 319-329 is a very realistic range – for example, Obama states minus Iowa; Obama states plus NC, minus Ohio (or OH and IA).

The question, therefore, is which price is wrong – handicap or electoral college? I say it’s the handicap that’s wrong and expect the odds on Clinton -99.5 to shorten significantly in due course. When it does, I’ll be able to cover much of the risk on her to win the presidency and the -49.5 handicap – if I wish to do so.

I’ll make that decision in due course. As I’ve said before, it may be that covering in specific states is the better option.

This is going to be a complex procedure, so feel free to post any questions on here or directly on Twitter to @paulmotty. Here’s a list of every live bet here.

***UPDATE**

I added a further bet on the handicap market last night, advised on Twitter. The profit/loss figures have been amended to account for it.

 

Next President Market

(+2 units from all settled earlier bets)

Backed Hillary Clinton 100 units @ 1.58

Laid Donald Trump 50 units @ 4.8

Laid Donald Trump 10 units @ 5.4

Laid Donald Trump 10 units @ 5.2

Laid Donald Trump 40 units @ 3.3

Short summary; Clinton +170 units, Trump -466 units

Electoral College Bets

Backed Clinton 330 – 359 25 units @ 6

Backed Clinton -49.5 20 units @ 1.73

Backed Clinton -74.5 25 units @ 2.2

Backed Clinton -99.5 25 units @ 3.1

OVERALL POSITION AFTER ELECTORAL COLLEGE BETS

Trump President -561 units

Clinton 270 – 293: +75 units

Clinton 294 – 306: +110 units

Clinton 307 – 318: +165 units

Clinton 319 – 329: +242 units

Clinton 330 – 359: +392 units

Clinton 360 or more: +242 units

***UPDATE

Rather than one of the specific electoral college vote total markets, as above, I’ve opted to have a saver on the upper range. As advised on Twitter, I’ve backed the Democrats to win 30 or more states. This would certainly cover 360 plus, and could in a dream scenario also land in the 330-359 band.

paulkrishnamurty

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