This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com
In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit.
Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election was called after the death of longstanding MP Paul Flynn. Labour start with a substantial majority of 5,658 over the Conservatives and won 52.3% of the vote at the 2017 general election.
Betting projects comfortable defence for Labour
Since going from government to opposition in 2010, Labour have proved predictably effective at defending safe, or relatively safe, seats. Of 22 defences, 21 were won with Copeland the sole exception at a particularly low point for the party.
Their combination of a mass membership and union links offer a big organisational advantage for getting the vote out – always a critical determinant of mid-term races with low turnout.
The Labour candidate appears perfect for such a defence. Ruth Jones is Newport born and bred, with a long career in the local NHS. She was President of the Welsh Trades Union Congress.
Obviously, taking such prohibitive odds will only appeal to a few but Ladbrokes are offering some more competitive options – on Labour’s vote share and who will finish third.