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Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?
BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the…
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Post-Iowa, what is at stake in New Hampshire debates?
This piece was first published on February 6th at betting.betfair.com Its happened again. One race into the 2020 US Election and the betting carnage is underway. With 97% reporting from the Iowa Caucus, just 0.1% separates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders in terms of delegates. Iowa produces another massive betting flip-flop The former was matched…
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Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?
The 2020 US Election starts tonight, with the Iowa Caucuses. As always, Betfair markets will stay open throughout the counting process until a winner (most delegates) is declared. It could well be a very long night! Polls contain huge margin of error Polling signals are far from clear. The psephological and political betting communities were…
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Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview
What are primaries and how do they work? Presidential primaries are the electoral process to determine the candidates representing the main parties. Starting on February 3 and lasting several months, registered Democrats and would-be supporters in each state will vote for their preferred candidate. The winners and prominent performers in each race are duly awarded…
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Iowa Caucus Betting Preview and Analysis
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 29th, 2020 Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses – the traditional curtain raiser of primary season – Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He’s into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President. Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three…
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Trump’s odds for 2020 are more wrong than ever
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on January 23rd, 2020 America is watching the impeachment trial of Donald Trump but there is no signal whatsoever from Betfair markets that the process is damaging his chances of re-election. No long-term reader of mine will be surprised to learn that I disagree. Trump odds-on for re-election despite…
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US Election: Rating the top seven Democrat candidates
A US Election is a marathon like no other. Prior to the main event in November and all the related state, margin and electoral college markets, there are fifty primaries covering each state to resolve the Democrat Candidates. Primary season starts in a fortnight at the Iowa Caucus. Since the Democrat race begun last summer,…
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US Election – Biden and Sanders lead Democrat nominee list
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 20th 2020 When the race to become Democrat Nominee began, a prevailing narrative swiftly emerged. Obsessed with diversity, the base would prefer a woman or person of colour. Ticking both boxes, Kamala Harris was the early favourite in the politics betting markets. A fortnight from the start of the…
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Next Labour Leader – Starmer ahead on most measures
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 19th January 2020 Keir Starmer has received a further boost to his campaign to be Next Labour Leader with the release of a new Yougov poll of Labour members. When last taken at the end of 2019, he was estimated to be 61-39 ahead of Rebecca Long-Bailey in…
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2020 US Election – Bernie Sanders gaining market momentum
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February…