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Latest Brexit Betting – Five Scenarios
The Brexit clock has ticked down 25 days since my last update – leaving just 79 until departure – but the parliamentary process to deliver it smoothly has barely moved forward. Parliament ties May’s hands ahead of probable defeat Thanks to the intervention of controversial Speaker John Bercow, this week’s parliamentary drama merely confirmed what…
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2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow
The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are…
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Will Brexit finish Jeremy Corbyn?
Brexit may have ripped politics apart but it has yet to remove either of the main party leaders – despite no shortage of opposition. Like Article 50, though, the clock is ticking. Recent speculation has centred on Theresa May, who was matched at just 1.1 to be Next Leader to Leave and is still odds-on…
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Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios
She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019,…
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How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza
If Betfair markets are any indication of how likely the U.K. is of leaving the European Union on time, then that prospect looks to be fading fast. This follows a truly remarkable couple of days in in parliament which now leaves the U.K in a state scratching their head on when Brexit will actually happen. What…
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Could a new political party crash the markets?
Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…
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Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump
Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to a 50% chance – while his odds to survive a full term have drifted to 1.5 67%. There is money for a 2019…
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A March Brexit is becoming less likely by the day
*This piece was first published last Friday, so I’ve updated the odds about an on-time Brexit, which have lengthened further since. The chance of the UK leaving the EU on time, if at all, is falling fast if Betfair markets are a guide. Following a truly remarkable few days in parliament, it is now rated…
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How to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise
Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become president. Season three involved a chaotic presidency, culminating in humiliating mid-term defeat. Entering season four, Trump is drowning in legal jeopardy. His ratings…
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UK Politics Betting – Which party will emerge stronger from Brexit?
On Friday morning on the Exchange, the betting for the Next General Election – whenever that may come to pass – was perfectly tied, with both Conservatives and Labour available to back at [2.06] to win most seats. An accurate reflection of the stalemate seen in polls, reinforced at local elections, since the 2017 election.…