• Brexit Chaos: What happens next?

    If nothing else, the last two torturous years should have been an educational experience with regards how politics within the EU and between member states works. One lesson for citizens of all countries should be to take anything their politicians or media say with a huge pinch of salt, for they are evidently more concerned…

  • Parliamentary defeat could be Theresa May’s last stand

    Crunch time, it seems, is finally here. After over two years of speculation – not to mention several hours during the Cabinet meeting – Theresa May released her proposed withdrawal agreement to the media last night. As the details are digested over the coming hours, the world awaits to see what happens next – regarding…

  • Beto O’Rourke is the star that Democrats need

    Analysing the mid-terms, I argued that Donald Trump will not be re-elected and that there was a good chance he wouldn’t even be on the ballot. Today let’s consider who will take him, or a Republican replacement, on in the 2020 US Presidential Election. Huge field expected for Democrat primary 2020 will see a Democrat…

  • Why Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020

    The world awoke yesterday to the US mid-term election results with one question in mind – will Donald Trump be re-elected? As I have argued consistently since he took office, the answer is no. Nothing about these results, and everything about the immediate aftermath, makes me more certain. 2020 betting unmoved by mid-term signals Many…

  • Betting plans for the mid-terms and the aftermath

    There has never been a mid-term US election like it, whether measured by the nature of the campaign, media coverage, betting or the significance moving forward. Whether it was the Kavanaugh confirmation, Trump’s ever more extreme immigration rhetoric or the tragedies caused by domestic terrorism, the world has been watching America. On Tuesday, we get…

  • US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview

    Next Tuesday, two years since his election shocked betting markets, Donald Trump will face the first meaningful electoral test of his presidency. Although his name is not on the ballot for local races across the country, the president’s omnipresence has come to define all US political matters. Whatever the result, it will be presented as…

  • Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?

    The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the first 15 years of Betfair, the favourite from 100 days out won every major UK or US election. Then suddenly, politics became extremely unpredictable. Bettors…

  • 2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States

    Arizona still too close to call Click here for latest odds Click here for latest polls A vivid example of the mountain Democrats need to climb in order to gain control of the Senate is that Arizona is rated either their best or second best chance of a gain. A solid red state that has…

  • Are Theresa May’s Brexit machinations about to finally unravel?

    So much for the old idea that betting markets were fundamentally sensitive to media reports. Despite several days of febrile speculation and almost universal agreement that the crunch time for Theresa May’s Brexit plans and therefore leadership has arrived, Betfair markets related to her exit date remain virtually unmoved. Markets backing May to survive ahead…

  • How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?

    With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, the most divisive incident of this most divisive presidency may have been settled, but the culture wars rumble on. The ramifications – whether they be short or long-term, electoral, political, legal or cultural – could be profound. Supreme Court fight has energised Republicans The campaign to stop…