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Macron the new French favourite after Penelopegate
Once upon a time, political betting was just about the most predictable game on earth. National elections were won by the favourite. Period. Then along came 2016 and, like just about all things political, all of our assumptions and long-established trends became redundant. With Brexit and Donald Trump fresh in the memory, political bettors seem…
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Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism
Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour. 2 new by-election bets: Backed UKIP 20 units @ Evens for Stoke; Laid (opposed) Labour 15 units @ 3.1 for Copeland. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26,…
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Five immediate challenges facing Donald Trump
1) Unite the American public behind his controversial presidency or at least gain legitimacy While there has rarely if ever been a candidate who so starkly divided opinion, there are a couple of adjectives we can all agree upon. Donald Trump is unique on both a personal and political level and pretty much everything since…
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Hunt resignation piles pressure on Corbyn
When looking ahead to the big political betting stories of 2017, I discussed the likelihood of a series of by-elections being triggered by Labour MPs, aimed at destabilising Jeremy Corbyn, or at least having that effect. After a second of his fiercest critics quit this morning, we already have two to look forward to. In…
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Trump backed for early exit as Russia allegations persist
If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign of evolving into anything like we’ve come to expect in a national leader. It is impossible to understate the…
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Five big political betting stories to follow in 2017
The Jeremy Corbyn saga continues Following the biggest ever year in political betting history, dominated by Brexit and Donald Trump, there is plenty of scope for world-changing drama in 2017. As discussed below, there are three major European elections with profound implications for the continent. However in terms of providing betting activity throughout the whole…
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Could Copeland be a tipping point for Corbyn?
Compared to Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency, the fate of the increasingly irrelevant Labour Party may seem like small beer. Nevertheless, the rise and widely predicted, pending fall of Jeremy Corbyn continues to compete for headlines and provide plenty of betting activity. Despite defying the odds, media derision and vitriol from most of his…
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Romney must be opposed at short odds
There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is both exciting and fraught with danger. Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary…
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Can UKIP pull off a huge betting upset?
One week ago, that great British tradition of by-election upsets was upheld. The Lib Dem victory in Richmond Park not only restored their reputation as the ultimate mid-term protest party and by-election specialists, but signaled a potentially big change in our political landscape since Brexit. Tomorrow, we will get another chance to test the new…
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Lib Dem fightback to fall short – for now
Five months on from the referendum, one issue continues to crowd out all others in British politics. The fallout from Brexit and attempts to resist it will dominate the agenda for years to come, shaping the narrative and potentially re-aligning our party system. The first meaningful electoral test of that fallout arrives this Thursday, with…