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Key Election States: NORTH CAROLINA
Electoral College Votes: 15 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average One of the key battlegrounds. Obama won in 2008 – becoming the first Democrat to do so since 1976 – but lost in 2012. If Clinton wins these 15 electoral college votes back, it becomes extremely hard to imagine her losing. No Republican has won…
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How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS
One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding alternatives to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. First there was months of speculation about Trump being blocked at the Republican Convention – prompting gambles about several…
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Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance
Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it…
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Portfolio update: Trading and hedging plans explained
As implied in yesterday’s piece, I could hardly be more confident about my long-running pro-Clinton positions. Trump is headed for a big defeat and the task is to measure the scale of it. At this stage, I’m not altering the published portfolio. I’m heavily invested in a big Clinton victory and expect the market will…
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Key States Analysis: COLORADO
Electoral College Votes: 9 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average This state perfectly demonstrates the enormous task faced by any Republican pursuing the presidency nowadays, let alone a divisive candidate like Trump. Prior to Barack Obama, Colorado was reliably red, only voting Democrat once between 1964 and 2008. Now it seems almost naturally Democrat, forming…
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Locked in a negative spiral, Trump is on course for a huge defeat
If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails Hillary Clinton across a slate of national polls by an average 7% and sometimes double-digit margins. By comparison, at this stage four…
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Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Electoral College Votes: 4 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Most famous for it’s pivotal ‘first in the nation’ primary, NH is another key plank of Clinton’s firewall. Polls consistently put her ahead but it is worth remembering that she lost this primary to Bernie Sanders, whereas victory on the GOP side propelled Trump towards…
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Key #Election2016 States: WISCONSIN
WISCONSIN Electoral College Votes: 10 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Though only offering ten electoral college votes, the Badger State is one of the most important. Along with Pennsylvania, it is probably the most vulnerable in Clinton’s firewall. The bad news for Trump is that no Republican has won it since Ronald Reagan in…
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Key #Election2016 States: PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral College Votes: 20 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Keystone State is probably the most important in this year’s election, as demonstrated by the stream of recent rallies hosted by Trump on the Republican side and both Obamas for the Democrats. While Trump has never been short of doubters on his own side,…
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Key #Election2016 States: FLORIDA
Electoral College Votes: 29 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Sunshine State probably garners more international attention than any in US elections, particularly since the ‘hanging chads’ debacle in 2000 handed the presidency to George W Bush. With 29 electoral college votes up for grabs and a tight partisan split, it is always pivotal…