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5 dynamics that could determine the first debate
1 Hillary Clinton’s health and appearance One might like to imagine that a debate to determine leader of the free world would be settled on a sombre analysis of their respective policy credentials, but it has never been the case. Or at least since presidential debates became televised in 1960. Famously, Richard Nixon won that…
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Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election
Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed and distrusted like never before, Trump’s outsider status captivated a conservative audience that yearns for someone to shake up the establishment. Entering the final…
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Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory
This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party…
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In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?
There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that…
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Measuring and reacting to Trump’s unarguable momentum
We’ve just seen two milestones passed on Betfair’s Next President market. First, the total matched has passed $50M – my estimate is it will go beyond $200M by polling day. Second and more significantly, Donald Trump has passed another threshold in trading below [3.0]. At [2.96], equivalent to a 34% chance, he’s at his lowest odds yet…
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#Election2016 interview with TRT World
On Monday, I spoke to TRT World about the impact of Hillary Clinton’s health scare on the election. I argued that, whilst the belated admission of pneumonia damaged her brand, reinforcing perceptions of secrecy and dishonesty, the incident actually presented an opportunity. If she now issues detailed medical records, it would transfer pressure onto Donald…
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Clinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage
Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After the latest bout of market madness, it deserves to be number one. From the moment news broke about a ‘medical…
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Extensive interview with Business Insider
Just before leaving for the States last weekend, I met up with Adam Payne from Business Insider UK for an extensive interview. An exciting opportunity, as I love this magazine and it’s willingness to stray from the conventional wisdom of longer established business press when necessary. We discussed my 15 year career as a professional…
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Just how damaged is Hillary Clinton?
She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have handpicked a more toxic opponent than Donald Trump, and enjoys a massive advantage in terms of campaign organisation. Yet Democrats are getting worried…
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Praising Putin could halt Trump’s recent progress
Judging by the immediate reaction on social media, I wasn’t alone in finding Wednesday’s NBC Commander In Chief forum a profoundly depressing affair. On the worst interpretation, both Clinton and Trump were allowed to tell straightforward lies. At best, highly dubious comments went unscrutinised. Trump’s claim that he was always against the 2003 Iraq war…