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Extensive Interview with Secret Betting Club
Here’s my recent interview with the excellent betting advice site www.secretbettingclub.com. In it, we discuss the growth of political betting and how to make it pay, including my historical record across a range of markets in both the UK and USA. We discuss past leadership contests, general elections and Brexit, along with my analysis of the ongoing…
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5 key stories that could shape the late narrative
In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this century, but a bad couple of weeks has seen her odds drift back to roughly where they were in July, before gaining a…
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Trump’s immigration balancing act looks shaky
After a generally disastrous run ever since becoming the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump has just enjoyed a good week. Though still trailing in the polls and historically weak on Betfair markets, both of those indicators have moved in his favour. At odds of 4.0, he’s now rated 25% likely to be Next President, up from…
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Traders can still win big from opposing Trump
As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is to set up a position that is predicted to improve on betting markets over time. Even better, hedge multiple markets against…
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Is 2016 the year for a minor party breakthrough?
From the moment 17 Republican candidates headed by a reality TV star kickstarted the process, the 2016 election cycle has been unique and unpredictable. With fewer than 80 days remaining, markets point to a one-sided contest yet both adjectives still apply. Betfair punters will be used to the straight-up, binary choice available in the three…
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The electoral map looks devastating for Trump
Four years ago, at this stage of the 2012 presidential cycle, there was a stark difference between clear betting market signals and a commentariat loathe to jump off the fence. Whereas pundits were saying en masse that the race was ‘too close to call’, Betfair punters consistently made Barack Obama the odds-on favourite to beat…
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5 reasons why Brexit doesn’t mean Donald Trump will win
The decision of UK voters to quit the European Union did not just send shockwaves through British politics. The world was watching, seeking to understand what it may signify for their own futures. Indeed, it was widely seen as the latest demonstration of an anti-establishment trend sweeping across the Western world. In particular, as I’ve…
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#Election2016 update for “Watching the Hawks”
Yesterday, I was privileged to make a return visit to RT America’s “Watching The Hawks’, to discuss the latest US Election betting news with Tyrel Ventura. We also discussed Brexit – both in terms of the betting and whether the UK will actually leave the European Union. Watch the full interview here
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Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?
As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump…
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7 reasons why Donald Trump won’t win
The idea that a celebrity, reality TV star could become US President always seemed faintly ridiculous – until Donald Trump defied the commentariat and betting odds to win the Republican nomination. Betfair punters take a similarly dim view about his general election chances, rating him only 22% likely to beat Hillary Clinton at odds of…