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Scrutiny will eventually destroy Donald Trump
Sceptics of my longstanding, confident prediction that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in November often ask the same question – “He’s got this far despite you all writing him off, so why can’t Trump prove you all wrong again?”. The question is unarguably valid. Like so many others, I simply couldn’t envisage Trump lasting…
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Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?
The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win…
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US Election Betting Portfolio Update
With the confirmation of both candidates at the party conventions, the second and final stage of the US Presidential Election is underway. A wide array of new, interesting markets have just opened on Betfair – including state betting and the distribution of electoral college votes. From now, with several UK political markets now settled and…
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Why the VP picks could matter more this time
The first stage of the US Presidential Election betting cycle is finally complete. With Donald Trump and Mike Pence confirmed as the Republican ticket last week in Cleveland, Hillary Clinton named Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate last night, ahead of the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. While these veepstakes are always a hot…
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Donald Trump’s odds shorten again
The most unconventional and unlikely presidential candidate in US history just hit his highest rating yet in the race for the White House. In finally securing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump killed the hopes of numerous detractors and ended one of the most exciting and dramatic races in the history of political betting. In response,…
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Where are the Labour heavyweights?
When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took…
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Labour leadership: Can Owen Smith beat Corbyn?
In the week when the Conservative Party united in order to usher in a new Prime Minister, their arch enemies seem hell-bent on ensuring Theresa May will face no meaningful opposition in parliament. With their leadership contest up and running, Labour are now committed to a summer of in-fighting that could well destroy the party.…
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Are these the 10 names on Trump’s VP shortlist?
With confirmation that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted and with a few days until the long-winded plans to strip Donald Trump from the Republican nomination are almost certainly defeated, the big story involves their respective VP picks. Trump goes first in Cleveland next week and speculation continues to circle about numerous candidates, even at…
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For once, we can trust the Tory favourites
I’ve recently announced two new positions on the Tory leadership on Twitter. New bet on #Toryleadership: 100 units on Theresa May @ 1.45. Explanation to follow soon! — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 5, 2016 #Toryleadership bet update: Closing out earlier 15 unit lay of Andrea Leadsom @ 4 at the same price. No need, given…
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New bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite simply, as with everything else about Donald Trump, normal rules need not apply. Normally, we would expect the presumptive nominee to pursue a balanced ticket, to…