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Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?
Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted out to 1.58 in the Next President market. Now, after just a small taste of what his campaign will look like, the handwringing has…
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Why I’m backing Tom Perez for VP
The art of betting on politics, (or pretty much anything for that matter), is being able to cut through the froth. And there seems to be more froth around than usual this cycle. Granted, some of that froth turned out to be serious – like a reality TV star with no political experience, ground game…
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Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and…
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Hedge between markets for a great value Brexit trade
Trying to find a cheap, value punt in the Brexit markets has not been straightforward. So far as the main result market is concerned, the scope for short-term trading has been limited and taking a confident view involves a sizeable risk, in a referendum which is far from clear cut. Remain, for example, has traded…
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Brexit update: Swift u-turn required as LEAVE poll numbers sink
While the Brexit markets are enormous, they have been frustratingly static for months. That, I suspect is about to change, and that means we need to act fast in reversing our latest position. Therefore, as advised on Twitter, I’m cancelling my recent bet on LEAVE to get over 47.5%, taking a two unit loss. #Brexit…
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7 potential VP picks for Donald Trump
With the Republican nomination secure, the next big election market involves identifying Donald Trump’s running mate. So far I’ve taken two positions, opposing John Kasich and Ben Carson for the job. Here I look at seven alternatives being reported as in the running. Newt Gingrich Dominating the market is one of the best-known figures in…
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Win or lose, LEAVE is under-rated on Brexit markets
Five weeks out from our most important vote in over 40 years, the detached nature of political conversation says much about the condition of UK politics. On one hand, a substantial minority are deeply engaged in the Brexit referendum. It is the central political discussion among the type of people that care about, follow or…
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The big election losers? Corbyn’s Labour enemies
Amidst a predictably middling set of UK election results, only one faction emerged as clear losers – the substantial number of MPs, journalists and prominent Labour supporters who are implacably opposed to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is not going anywhere in the short-term. These results were as good as could have been expected, one year after…
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Reflections on that incredible GOP race
In mentioning a profound sense of anti-climax, I probably speak for most political gamblers. A brokered Republican convention, given wall-to-wall media coverage, with endless speculation about rule changes and new candidates would have been a dream scenario, producing volatile markets and countless opportunities to bet. Yet from being rated a near certainty on betting markets…
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Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?
So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he…