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Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President
Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0…
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Interview for “Morning Briefing” on Sirius XM
Yesterday I was an in-studio guest on “Morning Affair POTUS” at one of my favourite radio stations, Sirius XM, interviewed by Tim Farley. This was a particularly enjoyable interview, giving me the chance to explain my analysis of Super Tuesday. Whereas the immediate consensus was that Trump had swept the board, I argued that his…
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Politico Series Part 5: Trump dominates before Super Tuesday
In the fifth of my series of US Election articles, I look back on the dramatic market movements following the New Hampshire Primary, through South Carolina and Nevada. Betting-wise, this was a quiet period for me, as Donald Trump continued to confound my expectations. Nevertheless, a small profit was bagged out of the frequently fluctuating…
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Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.
The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That…
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Super Tuesday produces a night of market mayhem!
Navigating a 24/7 instant news cycle is a fundamental challenge for gamblers – never more so than when politics is the market in question. Should we listen to the plethora of polls, even if they are often contradictory? Rumours sweeping the internet about imminent endorsements, that often fail to materialise or fail to make an…
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Extensive interview for Nevada Public Radio
Last week I was privileged to be interviewed in-depth for Nevada Public Radio (KNPR). We discussed how and why the 2016 US Election would be the biggest political betting event of all-time and my long-range analysis of the race. I also got to explain why I placed a $10,000 bet on Barack Obama two years…
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Rubio takes fight to Trump, but is it too late?
The question, posed immediately after Thursday’s CNN Debate by so many pundits, is why on earth did Marco Rubio wait until the tenth debate to truly take the fight to Donald Trump? There is no doubt that the longstanding GOP front-runner emerged more bruised from the Texas debate than any to date. Constantly attacked from…
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Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?
I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage fight than measured debate – and in my view, catastrophic for both the image and electoral prospects of the party. Tonight’s…
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Politico Series Part 4: Rubio in freefall after NH debate disaster
This piece was written a few days after the New Hampshire primary, ahead of South Carolina and Nevada. Here, I document the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio on betting markets. First, the market loved him in response to third place in Iowa and the media hype that followed. However as he famously stumbled…
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Bet update: Taking cover as Trump nomination looks inevitable
There is no two ways about it – the scale of Donald Trump’s third consecutive, overwhelming victory, in the Nevada Caucus, sent an ominous signal to his rivals for the GOP nomination. The window is closing on any attempt to stop him, and the logistics of uniting behind an alternative look impossible. With that in…