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Clinton v Trump is rated likelier than ever
From being wide-open when the nomination process began three weeks ago, if the betting is any guide, the race for the US presidency increasingly looks like a three-cornered contest. Despite widespread concerns about her campaign, slippage in nationwide polls7 and the ongoing investigation into her e-mails, Hillary Clinton remains rock-solid, odds-on favourite to become the…
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SC reflections: The state of play after wins for Trump and Clinton
From a betting perspective, the latest round produced a decent night. One winner, one loser from two small advised bets, yielding a small 2.2 units overall profit. My predictions were pretty close to the mark. Longer-term, a mixture of disappointment that long-range prediction Ted Cruz looks less likely than any point since the start of…
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New bets, SC and NV predictions
Forgive the lateness of these updates – I am in the UK on family business before flying back to Las Vegas tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll be joining a fellow British political gambler for an all-night session, trading the GOP South Carolina Primary and Democrat Nevada Caucus – and we plan to go live on Periscope. Follow…
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Nevada Caucus: The Sanders surge gathers momentum
The Democrats may have been consistently rated as odds-on favourite to win the presidency, but their primary process has been left trailing a poor second to the Republicans in both the entertainment and betting stakes. A polite head-to-head debate, in which defining your opponent as a ‘moderate’ rather than a ‘progressive’ becomes a talking point,…
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SC Primary: Race for places behind Trump is pivotal
When asked recently to list the ten greatest political betting markets of all-time, I took a minor liberty in awarding the final spot to this year’s US Elections, pre-empting the biggest ever markets in response to a fascinating and highly unpredictable race. In truth, with over eight months until the general election, the Republican Nominee…
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New bet as key SC endorsements offer Rubio big momentum
As detailed in my latest piece for Politico, the big recent story in betting markets was the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio – based on what amounts, in effect, to very little. First the markets fell in love with Rubio after his much-vaunted third place in Iowa. Then they started dumping him, literally…
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Interview on RT America’s “Watching the Hawks”
This was a most enjoyable interview, for the excellent show :”Watching the Hawks” on RT America. Here, I discuss the scale of betting on the 2016 US Election, along with the Democrat and Republican races with Tyler Ventura and Tabetha Wallace.
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Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire
This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race. However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin! Click here to read the…
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Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
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Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump. Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race. First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal…