-
New position: Lay back Sanders, leave risk free bet
One new bet to advise – as per my advice on Twitter from this morning. So, what I’m doing here is taking all the risk out of the Bernie Sanders bet advised last week, when his odds were 24. By selling or laying back the 15 unit stake, no money can be lost on the…
-
Is it time to think the unthinkable?
With each day, Trump v Sanders looks likelier If the betting markets are any guide, the race for the Presidency looks like a six-runner race. Five if, like me, you think Jeb Bush is a no-hoper. Three of those five would represent a seismic shock to U.S. politics, almost unimaginable until recently. Significantly, the campaigns…
-
Next Conservative Leader: Lay George Osborne. Fast!
With much of his party on the verge of open revolt as Britain’s referendum on EU membership nears, David Cameron felt the need this weekend to stress that if the country votes to leave against what are now obviously his wishes, rather than resign, he would try and make it work. We don’t know the…
-
New position: Simple maths make Bernie a great trade
New Hampshire progress means Sanders’ current odds are all wrong Two essential components of successful gambling, (trading is a more accurate term), are timing and the ability to do basic maths. Get those two things right and one need not necessarily predict winners. That is the logic behind my latest position on the U.S. Election,…
-
How and why New Hampshire could shape the election
At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict theĀ New Hampshire Primary Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates –…
-
Six political betting markets to watch in 2016
2016 looks set to be the biggest year inĀ political betting history, with the US Presidential Election taking centre-stage plus various big contests in the UK. Here, for @BetfairExchange, IĀ look forward to six particularly exciting markets. US Presidential Election – Republican Nominee There’s no question which country’s politics will produce the most betting action during 2016.…
-
Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassrootsĀ opinionĀ Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
-
Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton
Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view,…
-
The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?
Trump may alienate supporters if attackingĀ Cruz too hard It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee. Why…
-
Clinton gains momentum as Donald Trump threatens to split the GOP
Democrat favourite shortens up on Betfair in response to GOP turmoilĀ Jeb Bush’s Presidential campaign has hardly been the most effective, but the one-time runaway favourite for the Republican Nomination made perhaps his most prescient intervention last week, wondering whether Donald Trump had cooked up a deal with his old pal Hillary Clinton. For the…