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Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream
Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s…
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Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?
If they can’t compete in winnable by-elections, how can they progress? Hands up. I could not have called the Oldham by-election more wrong. Like many others, I thought at the very least UKIP would at least give Labour a close fight, so the scale of their victory was a huge shock. Different people with different…
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Has Donald Trump gone too far this time?
Trump condemned across GOP spectrum over call to ban Muslims Considering the election isn’t until next November and even the first primary nearly two months away, the liquidity and volatility on Betfair’s US Presidential Election markets is unprecedented. The reason? As illustrated by record audiences for the TV debates, Donald Trump’s candidacy has captured public interest.…
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UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham
Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have…
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Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens
Defeat in this week’s by-election could prove a tipping point for controversial leader After another terrible week for Labour, Betfair markets are turning fast against the party and their new leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is now rated only 17% likely to lead Labour into the 2020 General Election, at odds of 6.2. On the Betfair Sportsbook,…
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Donald Trump odds hit their shortest yet, but beware underlying poll numbers
Front-runner remains well behind in favorability among GOP supporters After nearly six months topping the polls for Republican Nominee, Donald Trump continues to confound conventional wisdom. Rather than falling away under scrutiny as the race gets serious, two surveys out yesterday showed the billionaire significantly extending his national lead. Bloomberg record him 4% ahead, PPP…
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Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet
Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very…
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Political betting on the US Election: Complete portfolio
All bets to be listed here. Click the link on each bet for the original advice and reasoning Backed Scott Walker for Next President 4 units @ 26 (4%) Laid Scott Walker for Next President 3 units @ 32 (3%) (1 unit loss overall on Walker) Backed Ben Carson for Next President 4u @ 65…
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Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging
GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton,…
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Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?
Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked…