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US Election: Four takeaways from the Democrat Convention
“One profound difference with 2016 was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster. Leaks from a Russian hack were released to great online fanfare, revealing the party establishment’s preference and bias towards Clinton over Bernie Sanders.”
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US Election: Kamala Harris is a risk that could backfire on Biden
Anyone labouring under the illusion that this will be an easy ride, in which her qualities are celebrated, the rationale of her arguments win out, that her character and reputation won’t be torn to shreds, has never watched a US election.
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Why Do The Election Odds Differ From Polls? Eight Explanations
“US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed.”
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Democrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy
“I’m particularly struck by Kasich’s support, as it is coming from a frontline politician. A former Governor of a bellwether state – Ohio.”
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US Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update
“In a more conventional two-horse race than 2016, Trump needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.”
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Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
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Democrat VP Betting: Can we trust the Kamala gamble?
This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama.
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Why Re-fighting the Last Election Rarely Makes Sense
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th July 2020 Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the 2020 odds and polling models. Current Betfair odds imply a 62% chance of victory for Joe Biden.…
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How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.
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Democrats On Course For A Big Win – Here’s Four Ways To Cash In
On the question of this election – a referendum on Trump – I reckon this polarised electorate splits 55-45 against. Numerous polls – including at times when he was faring better nationally – showed around this figure committed to voting against him and even, during the impeachment process, to be removed from office.