At the end of a week which, I’m sure we can all agree was like no other any Brit can remember, let’s settle up and review our various positions and the situation moving forward.
First, the good news. Brexit worked out very well. The published portfolio yielded 76 units profit and after two in-play cover bets announced on Twitter, my total profit after commission was around 170 units.
#Brexit portfolio update: Backed Leave 40 units @ 2.84 – covering strong position on Remain 50-52.5%
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) June 24, 2016
Another #Brexit portfolio update: 20 units on Leave @ 2.4
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) June 24, 2016
Sadly, as is so often the case in gambling, a great win was followed by an unmitigated disaster. I’ve long argued that, unlike sports, political betting was not prone to freak occurrences. Yet this time, the shocking implosion of Boris Johnson’s bid for the Tory leadership was the equivalent of a well fancied horse being left at the starting gate. 80 units down the drain without even a run!
It is not all bad news, as I still have a couple long-term positions on Theresa May at 10, which I strongly expect to win. But the short-term damage is done and will be hard to repair.
Right now at least, there seems little point in adding any new bets. May is by far and away the standout candidate, and Johnson’s exit leaves her in an unassailable position. She already had a big lead amongst the members who will ultimately decide and it now seems unimaginable that she wouldn’t make the final two.
Her rivals either lack the experience or ability to unify the party at this crucial time. Michael Gove is a more divisive figure than ever after the Boris backstabbing. Stephen Crabb and Andrea Leadsom are both strong candidates with a big future, but cannot compete with May on experience – which has never been a more salient quality than during this leadership election.
If the odds look like fluctuating, I may re-enter this market but for now, I can’t see past May.
In contrast, the Labour leader market and Jeremy Corbyn’s future should offer plenty of opportunities throughout the summer. I’ll write more soon but for now, I have three live bets. A couple of months ago, Tom Watson and Stephen Kinnock were advised, and last week I tweeted a 5 unit lay of David Miliband at 11. If you missed it then, the odds are still available and advice still stands.
New bet on Labour leader: Laid (opposed) David Miliband 5 units at 11.0 (9%). A truly awful price! New piece coming very soon.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) June 27, 2016
Of course these bets may not be settled any time soon. If Corbyn survives a leadership challenge, they will still be running.
One response to “Portfolio updates for Brexit, Tory & Labour markets”
I could have told you – I told others – that Boris has a very poor reputation among his politician peers, many of whom really didn’t want to work with him; this is why Cameron and not Boris made it to number 10.
For some reason his former colleagues among journalists like to heap praise on him.
I am somewhat kicking myself for not laying against him at 2:1. Would have doubled my money for the second time that week.