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New bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite simply, as with everything else about Donald Trump, normal rules need not apply. Normally, we would expect the presumptive nominee to pursue a balanced ticket, to…
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Next market: Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate?
So after all that, the GOP race is over. No dramatic finale in California, let alone the fascinating, unique spectacle of a brokered convention. It seems incredible that, less than three weeks ago, Donald Trump was weaker on betting markets than he’d been for months, drifting out to around 45%. Even more so that he…
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Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?
I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage fight than measured debate – and in my view, catastrophic for both the image and electoral prospects of the party. Tonight’s…
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Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet
Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very…
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Political betting on the US Election: Complete portfolio
All bets to be listed here. Click the link on each bet for the original advice and reasoning Backed Scott Walker for Next President 4 units @ 26 (4%) Laid Scott Walker for Next President 3 units @ 32 (3%) (1 unit loss overall on Walker) Backed Ben Carson for Next President 4u @ 65…
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Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging
GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton,…
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Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?
Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked…
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Who’s right about the GOP? Polls or the market?
Rubio’s odds in freefall despite poll showing Carson 18% ahead Sunday’s re-election of Turkish President Rayep Erdogan dealt a further blow to the most established means of predicting politics. Erdogan’s AKP won decisively with 49.4%, compared to an average of 43.7% in the last five opinion polls. In fairness, late opinion polls were banned from…
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Betting markets take a firm view about Rubio
But will the polls follow suit? After a couple of days digesting the fallout from the latest Republican debate, there are clear conclusions to be drawn regarding who won or lost, whose stock rose or fell. Jeb Bush’s campaign is in total crisis. The longstanding early market favourite was put firmly, embarrassingly in his place…
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Is this the beginning of the end for Jeb Bush?
One-time favourite is sliding badly on the betting markets From the moment Jeb Bush announced his Presidential bid, boosted by a stack of mega-donors, the former Florida Governor became red-hot favourite on the betting markets to be the Republican candidate. However as in the last two elections, the early money for this market increasingly looks…