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Where can we find reliable information on the US Election?
If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive.
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US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump
“What is clear is that picking fights with state governors such as Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is counter to majority opinion in individual states. So too the anti-lockdown protests from his supporters.”
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Super Tuesday and Democrat Nomination Betting and Analysis
This article first appeared on 3rd March 2020 at betting.betfair.com The eve of the biggest date of primary season could barely have been more dramatic, both in terms of events and their effect on Betfair markets. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both withdrawn and endorsed Joe Biden. Biden the new favourite after day of…
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South Carolina Primary: Biden poised to unite the anti-Sanders vote
This piece was first published on Saturday 29th February 2020 at betting.betfair.com This year is the third time that Joe Biden has run for the presidency. If the signals on Betfair for tonight’s South Carolina Primary are correct, he is about to finally win a race. Biden expected to land big win in SC The…
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Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Friday February 21st It’s often said that TV debates can’t move the needle anymore and that has largely been the case during several months of the Democrat primaries. Michael Bloomberg’s debut in Nevada, however, just wrecked that theory, at least if impacting betting markets is the criteria. Bloomberg…
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Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th February 2020 Long-term readers may be shocked. After five years covering the Trump beat with incessant negativity, only pausing briefly to cut my losses on THAT night in 2016, I’m coming around to the idea that the nightmare may not end in November. There is a way…
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Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?
When writing last week’s analysis, five Democrat candidates were trading lower than $100 for the presidency. There are still five but we’ve had a swap – Amy Klobuchar’s odds have crashed to $80 from around $270, while Elizabeth Warren is out to $200. From odds-on favourite in October, she’s now dismissed at $140 to win…
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Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?
BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the…
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Post-Iowa, what is at stake in New Hampshire debates?
This piece was first published on February 6th at betting.betfair.com Its happened again. One race into the 2020 US Election and the betting carnage is underway. With 97% reporting from the Iowa Caucus, just 0.1% separates Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders in terms of delegates. Iowa produces another massive betting flip-flop The former was matched…
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Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?
The 2020 US Election starts tonight, with the Iowa Caucuses. As always, Betfair markets will stay open throughout the counting process until a winner (most delegates) is declared. It could well be a very long night! Polls contain huge margin of error Polling signals are far from clear. The psephological and political betting communities were…