-
Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview
What are primaries and how do they work? Presidential primaries are the electoral process to determine the candidates representing the main parties. Starting on February 3 and lasting several months, registered Democrats and would-be supporters in each state will vote for their preferred candidate. The winners and prominent performers in each race are duly awarded…
-
Iowa Caucus Betting Preview and Analysis
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 29th, 2020 Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses – the traditional curtain raiser of primary season – Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He’s into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President. Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three…
-
Trump’s odds for 2020 are more wrong than ever
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on January 23rd, 2020 America is watching the impeachment trial of Donald Trump but there is no signal whatsoever from Betfair markets that the process is damaging his chances of re-election. No long-term reader of mine will be surprised to learn that I disagree. Trump odds-on for re-election despite…
-
US Election – Biden and Sanders lead Democrat nominee list
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 20th 2020 When the race to become Democrat Nominee began, a prevailing narrative swiftly emerged. Obsessed with diversity, the base would prefer a woman or person of colour. Ticking both boxes, Kamala Harris was the early favourite in the politics betting markets. A fortnight from the start of the…
-
2020 US Election – Bernie Sanders gaining market momentum
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 12th January With primary season less than a month away, the 2020 US Election is underway in earnest, There have of course been numerous Democrat debates already but none carries anything like the importance of Tuesday’s six-way debate in Iowa, which will host the opening caucuses on February…
-
2020 US Election Betting: Is the Biden Bounce for real?
The most significant gamble towards the 2020 US Election is underway. In the fortnight since Joe Biden declared his candidacy, the former Vice President has risen to clear second favourite behind Donald Trump, with his odds shortening from 15.0 to a new low of 6.4 this morning. Biden opens up vast early primary lead If…
-
Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020
This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting mistake is to refight the previous election. To assume the dynamics will be replicated. That the narrative which worked previously will remain…
-
2020 US Election: Democrat Candidate Picks
A US Presidential Election is truly like no other, effectively lasting two years. Although the primaries do not start until February 2020, would-be candidates are already visiting the opening states – Iowa and New Hampshire. History shows that, to become the nominee for either party, victory in one of those two openers is essential. hence…
-
Beto O’Rourke is the star that Democrats need
Analysing the mid-terms, I argued that Donald Trump will not be re-elected and that there was a good chance he wouldn’t even be on the ballot. Today let’s consider who will take him, or a Republican replacement, on in the 2020 US Presidential Election. Huge field expected for Democrat primary 2020 will see a Democrat…
-
2020 US Election Betting: Who will be the Democrat candidate?
Less than a year after the most memorable election in the history of political betting, it is time to start thinking seriously about the sequel. While speculation remains rife regarding whether President Donald Trump will again be the Republican candidate or even last a full term – he’s only rated 50% likely to do so…