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Seven potential VP picks for Hillary Clinton
Now Hillary Clinton has passed the threshold to secure the Democrat nomination, betting focus shifts to her choice of running mate. In last week’s piece for Betfair, I weighed up the chances of seven possible vice presidential candidates. Bernie Sanders – Odds 12.0 While Hillary Clinton’s long-term focus is on Donald Trump, a more pressing concern…
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Why I’m backing Tom Perez for VP
The art of betting on politics, (or pretty much anything for that matter), is being able to cut through the froth. And there seems to be more froth around than usual this cycle. Granted, some of that froth turned out to be serious – like a reality TV star with no political experience, ground game…
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Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and…
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Front-runners to regain momentum in New York
When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance…
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Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions
On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units…
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Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3
This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies…
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GOP split as Trump maintains momentum
The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different. Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton…
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New bets, SC and NV predictions
Forgive the lateness of these updates – I am in the UK on family business before flying back to Las Vegas tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll be joining a fellow British political gambler for an all-night session, trading the GOP South Carolina Primary and Democrat Nevada Caucus – and we plan to go live on Periscope. Follow…
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Nevada Caucus: The Sanders surge gathers momentum
The Democrats may have been consistently rated as odds-on favourite to win the presidency, but their primary process has been left trailing a poor second to the Republicans in both the entertainment and betting stakes. A polite head-to-head debate, in which defining your opponent as a ‘moderate’ rather than a ‘progressive’ becomes a talking point,…
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Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market…