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How Margaret Beckett could become Prime Minister
This piece first appeared at gambling.com on 1st October 2019. The past week in UK politics may have been more divisive and depressing than ever but at least there is one consolation. Almost every hour brings another twist to an ever-increasing array of political betting opportunities. The end of this particular parliament is imminent, but few can…
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Brexit Latest – What next after Supreme Court strikes down prorogation?
The Supreme Court has delivered its unanimous judgement – Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful. Betfair markets reacted instantly with the PM backed briefly at odds-on to cease to be Conservative Leader this year and a 2019 General Election is now rated 70% likely at odds of 1.42. To be clear though, nobody can…
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Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?
A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls,…
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Is an October General Election Inevitable?
This article was first published on 3rd September at betting.betfair.com After yet another extraordinary, dramatic day in UK politics, few if any observers are any clearer. Quelle surprise. Protesters almost drown out Johnson speech An October General Election – tipped here last week at 4.6 – crashed into 1.25 after it was announced Boris Johnson…
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Brexit Latest – Election odds-on to occur before Brexit
This piece was first published on 29th August 2019 for betting.betfair.com Having spent all summer on tenterhooks, waiting to learn precisely how Boris Johnson’s government plans to deliver its Brexit promises, British politics finally blew up yesterday and entered a new, highly unpredictable phase. Prorogation exacerbates political divide Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament for five…
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Next Conservative Leader Betting – Who will succeed Boris Johnson?
Some political betting markets never stop. No sooner have we settled a Tory leadership contest and the bookies are betting on who will succeed Boris Johnson. Who knows – with the new PM likely to face a No Confidence vote as soon as parliament emerges from recess, this could be settled within months. That, to be clear, is…
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Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously
Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability…
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Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion
Amidst much election talk – whether of the general or European variety – a more imminent poll has yet to capture media attention. Come Friday morning, the Newport West By-Election may well be very newsworthy. Labour near-certain to win big Voters in this relatively safe Labour constituency go to the polls on Thursday, following the…
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Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on
This article was first published on March 29th 2019 Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it. May departure…
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Which options will emerge from Brexit mega-ballot?
This article was first published on 27th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com In the most extraordinary series of events since the referendum, Brexit could take any number of different turns over the next few days. Having seized control of the parliamentary timetable in a bid to break the deadlock, MPs will debate and vote on a…