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Six famous leadership contest upsets
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the…
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Next Labour Leader – History tells us to beware early signals
The Labour leadership contest has a clear front-runner. Keir Starmer isn’t the first to trade at odds-on to succeed Jeremy Corbyn – Rebecca Long Bailey did so before Christmas, as did Owen Smith back in 2016. However the former Director of Public Prosecutions is the first to hold this position in the betting based on…
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Brexit protest to slash Labour’s Lewisham East majority
When the Lewisham East By-Election was announced – in light of Labour MP Heidi Alexander quitting to take a job with London Mayor Sadiq Khan – my immediate thoughts were conspiratorial. A mid-term by-election in an ultra safe Labour seat, which overwhelmingly voted Remain, offers the perfect chance to challenge Labour’s pro-Brexit stance and potentially…
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Could new anti-Brexit party transform British politics?
After Corbyn, Trump, Brexit, Macron and Theresa May’s lost majority, get set for the next improbable political gamble at massive odds. ‘Any Other Party’ besides the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems to win the next UK General Election is currently available to back around [120.0]. Win or lose, expect it to shorten. While the market…
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The big election losers? Corbyn’s Labour enemies
Amidst a predictably middling set of UK election results, only one faction emerged as clear losers – the substantial number of MPs, journalists and prominent Labour supporters who are implacably opposed to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is not going anywhere in the short-term. These results were as good as could have been expected, one year after…