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Five ways to profit from election side markets
With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage…
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Are new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?
In ten days, hundreds of millions of people will breathe a huge sigh of relief as the strangest, most entertaining, depressing, dramatic and unpredictable election in democratic history is finally resolved. And that’s just American voters. Those of us who’ve spent the last year trading Betfair’s US election markets will need a holiday. New FBI…
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A Clinton landslide is still under-rated
The following piece was published on Thursday, before the latest e-mail drama. The odds have moved considerably since against Clinton, but the general argument still applies. With less than a fortnight until polling day, the verdict from various prediction models and Betfair markets is unanimous. Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the Next President.…
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How Evan McMullin could be the next #POTUS
One of many strange features of this unique election cycle has been that, ever since the primary process yielded historically unpopular candidates, there has been constant speculation about finding alternatives to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. First there was months of speculation about Trump being blocked at the Republican Convention – prompting gambles about several…
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Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance
Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it…
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Key States Analysis: COLORADO
Electoral College Votes: 9 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average This state perfectly demonstrates the enormous task faced by any Republican pursuing the presidency nowadays, let alone a divisive candidate like Trump. Prior to Barack Obama, Colorado was reliably red, only voting Democrat once between 1964 and 2008. Now it seems almost naturally Democrat, forming…
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Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Electoral College Votes: 4 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Most famous for it’s pivotal ‘first in the nation’ primary, NH is another key plank of Clinton’s firewall. Polls consistently put her ahead but it is worth remembering that she lost this primary to Bernie Sanders, whereas victory on the GOP side propelled Trump towards…
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Key #Election2016 States: PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral College Votes: 20 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Keystone State is probably the most important in this year’s election, as demonstrated by the stream of recent rallies hosted by Trump on the Republican side and both Obamas for the Democrats. While Trump has never been short of doubters on his own side,…
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Key #Election2016 States: OHIO
Electoral College Votes: 18 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Buckeye State is often referred to as America’s ultimate bellweather, based on the fact it has picked every president since 1960. Both parties will throw huge campaign resources in pursuit of these 18 electoral college votes – down two from 2012. It is particularly…
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Updating the #Election2016 odds for RT’s Watching The Hawks!
Last week I was privileged to make my third appearance on the superb RT show “Watching the Hawks”. This time I was live in the studio, rather than via satellite link, so I got to watch a particularly interesting episode close-up. In addition to discussing the latest odds to win the presidency, distribution of electoral…