-
Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3
This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies…
-
Next steps in the Republican race
After months of watching the GOP civil war unfold live at the TV debates, the latest one from Miami came as something of a culture shock. On what could plausibly be the last one, or at least the last involving more than two candidates, everyone was civil and policy-focused. There was no obvious winner or…
-
GOP split as Trump maintains momentum
The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different. Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton…
-
Two new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls
We’ve just had four more results in the Republican Nomination process, with two wins apiece for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. I’ve been tweeting all day about it and will doubtless be writing and talking more as the week goes on. We have a pivotal primary to come on Tuesday, in Michigan. Coming off the…
-
Will a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?
Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or markets had suggested. Therefore, it is perhaps no surprise to see short-odds money-buyers a little more reluctant to wade in…
-
Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President
Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0…
-
Politico Series Part 5: Trump dominates before Super Tuesday
In the fifth of my series of US Election articles, I look back on the dramatic market movements following the New Hampshire Primary, through South Carolina and Nevada. Betting-wise, this was a quiet period for me, as Donald Trump continued to confound my expectations. Nevertheless, a small profit was bagged out of the frequently fluctuating…
-
Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.
The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That…
-
Super Tuesday produces a night of market mayhem!
Navigating a 24/7 instant news cycle is a fundamental challenge for gamblers – never more so than when politics is the market in question. Should we listen to the plethora of polls, even if they are often contradictory? Rumours sweeping the internet about imminent endorsements, that often fail to materialise or fail to make an…
-
Extensive interview for Nevada Public Radio
Last week I was privileged to be interviewed in-depth for Nevada Public Radio (KNPR). We discussed how and why the 2016 US Election would be the biggest political betting event of all-time and my long-range analysis of the race. I also got to explain why I placed a $10,000 bet on Barack Obama two years…