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How and why New Hampshire could shape the election
At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict the New Hampshire Primary Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates –…
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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton
Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view,…
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The big debate question: Has Donald Trump finally met his match?
Trump may alienate supporters if attacking Cruz too hard It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee. Why…
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Clinton gains momentum as Donald Trump threatens to split the GOP
Democrat favourite shortens up on Betfair in response to GOP turmoil Jeb Bush’s Presidential campaign has hardly been the most effective, but the one-time runaway favourite for the Republican Nomination made perhaps his most prescient intervention last week, wondering whether Donald Trump had cooked up a deal with his old pal Hillary Clinton. For the…
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Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream
Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s…
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Why I’m not taking the Ted Cruz profit just yet
Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago. In short, I’m biding my time, very…
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Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging
GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton,…
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Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?
Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked…
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Who’s right about the GOP? Polls or the market?
Rubio’s odds in freefall despite poll showing Carson 18% ahead Sunday’s re-election of Turkish President Rayep Erdogan dealt a further blow to the most established means of predicting politics. Erdogan’s AKP won decisively with 49.4%, compared to an average of 43.7% in the last five opinion polls. In fairness, late opinion polls were banned from…