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2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow
The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are…
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Could a new political party crash the markets?
Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…
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Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump
Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to a 50% chance – while his odds to survive a full term have drifted to 1.5 67%. There is money for a 2019…
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How to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise
Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become president. Season three involved a chaotic presidency, culminating in humiliating mid-term defeat. Entering season four, Trump is drowning in legal jeopardy. His ratings…
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2020 US Election: Democrat Candidate Picks
A US Presidential Election is truly like no other, effectively lasting two years. Although the primaries do not start until February 2020, would-be candidates are already visiting the opening states – Iowa and New Hampshire. History shows that, to become the nominee for either party, victory in one of those two openers is essential. hence…
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Why Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
The world awoke yesterday to the US mid-term election results with one question in mind – will Donald Trump be re-elected? As I have argued consistently since he took office, the answer is no. Nothing about these results, and everything about the immediate aftermath, makes me more certain. 2020 betting unmoved by mid-term signals Many…
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Betting plans for the mid-terms and the aftermath
There has never been a mid-term US election like it, whether measured by the nature of the campaign, media coverage, betting or the significance moving forward. Whether it was the Kavanaugh confirmation, Trump’s ever more extreme immigration rhetoric or the tragedies caused by domestic terrorism, the world has been watching America. On Tuesday, we get…
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US Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview
Next Tuesday, two years since his election shocked betting markets, Donald Trump will face the first meaningful electoral test of his presidency. Although his name is not on the ballot for local races across the country, the president’s omnipresence has come to define all US political matters. Whatever the result, it will be presented as…
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Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?
The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the first 15 years of Betfair, the favourite from 100 days out won every major UK or US election. Then suddenly, politics became extremely unpredictable. Bettors…
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How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it
Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable. I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by…