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Final US Election Portfolio
Where on earth to start after the most incredible political event most of us can ever remember? I’ve just returned to the UK and will be writing more over the weekend but for this first piece, I’ll simply settle up the portfolio ahead of wider explanation and analysis. Obviously, Trump becoming president was a catastrophe –…
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5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton
When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position.…
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Five ways to profit from election side markets
With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage…
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Are new Clinton e-mail revelations a gamechanger?
In ten days, hundreds of millions of people will breathe a huge sigh of relief as the strangest, most entertaining, depressing, dramatic and unpredictable election in democratic history is finally resolved. And that’s just American voters. Those of us who’ve spent the last year trading Betfair’s US election markets will need a holiday. New FBI…
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A Clinton landslide is still under-rated
The following piece was published on Thursday, before the latest e-mail drama. The odds have moved considerably since against Clinton, but the general argument still applies. With less than a fortnight until polling day, the verdict from various prediction models and Betfair markets is unanimous. Hillary Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the Next President.…
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Key States Analysis: COLORADO
Electoral College Votes: 9 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average This state perfectly demonstrates the enormous task faced by any Republican pursuing the presidency nowadays, let alone a divisive candidate like Trump. Prior to Barack Obama, Colorado was reliably red, only voting Democrat once between 1964 and 2008. Now it seems almost naturally Democrat, forming…
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Key #Election2016 States: PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral College Votes: 20 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Keystone State is probably the most important in this year’s election, as demonstrated by the stream of recent rallies hosted by Trump on the Republican side and both Obamas for the Democrats. While Trump has never been short of doubters on his own side,…
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Key #Election2016 States: OHIO
Electoral College Votes: 18 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Buckeye State is often referred to as America’s ultimate bellweather, based on the fact it has picked every president since 1960. Both parties will throw huge campaign resources in pursuit of these 18 electoral college votes – down two from 2012. It is particularly…
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Updating the #Election2016 odds for RT’s Watching The Hawks!
Last week I was privileged to make my third appearance on the superb RT show “Watching the Hawks”. This time I was live in the studio, rather than via satellite link, so I got to watch a particularly interesting episode close-up. In addition to discussing the latest odds to win the presidency, distribution of electoral…
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Trump’s campaign in crisis ahead of St Louis debate
Losing the opening TV debate need not necessarily spell disaster for a presidential campaign. Four years ago, Barack Obama was widely assumed to have lost to Mitt Romney. The polls moved briefly towards Romney but the president bounced back in the final two en route to a landslide. A good omen, then, for Donald Trump…