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Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?
The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win…
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#NeverTrump’s growing legitimacy problem
Following his predictable runaway win in New York, and ahead of tomorrow’s five North-East primaries, Donald Trump is rated 70% likely on betting markets to be the Republican Nominee. Precisely the mark he was before a predictable loss in Wisconsin, which caused a dramatic over-reaction and slide to a trough of 44%. On that basis, we can assume that by the…
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Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump
As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to…
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Extensive interview for Nevada Public Radio
Last week I was privileged to be interviewed in-depth for Nevada Public Radio (KNPR). We discussed how and why the 2016 US Election would be the biggest political betting event of all-time and my long-range analysis of the race. I also got to explain why I placed a $10,000 bet on Barack Obama two years…