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Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
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Biden Moves Clearly Ahead Across All Indicators
There are, of course, more than four months until polling day, for Trump to turn things around. As we are constantly reminded, remember what happened in 2016. Biden, however, is considerably further ahead – by around 5% – in the polls than Clinton was at this stage.
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Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.
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The Electoral Map Looks Bad For Trump – Here’s How To Play It
“Six months out from polling day, the picture for the incumbent is not promising.”
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How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets
The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the popular vote by around 2M votes, yet suffer a resounding 306-232 defeat in the electoral college. This isn’t an excuse. I argued many times…
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US Election Betting Portfolio Update
Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success. Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the latter point, I can’t say I’ve played this election cycle well. In the primaries my cover bets on Trump were terribly timed, probably…
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Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Electoral College Votes: 4 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Most famous for it’s pivotal ‘first in the nation’ primary, NH is another key plank of Clinton’s firewall. Polls consistently put her ahead but it is worth remembering that she lost this primary to Bernie Sanders, whereas victory on the GOP side propelled Trump towards…
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New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio
Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday. Another #Election2016 bet: 20 units Hillary Clinton @ 1.73 for Betfair's +49.5…
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My trading plan for the electoral college
I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September…
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Clinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage
Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After the latest bout of market madness, it deserves to be number one. From the moment news broke about a ‘medical…