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Will Keir Starmer turn Labour’s fortunes around?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th April 2020 Sir Keir Starmer has been confirmed as the new Labour leader and Angela Rayner will be his deputy. Their victories were resounding. Starmer won in the first round of the party’s AV system with 56.2%. Rayner won 41.7% in the first round and passed the…
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Next Tory Leader – Should we get behind the Sunak gamble?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 27th March 2020 It should by now go without saying – politics moves fast. Can anyone recall, anywhere, a reputation growing faster than Rishi Sunak? Six months ago, the 39 year-old MP for Richmond was barely known. When Boris Johnson opted out of a ‘Leaders Debate’ during the…
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How long can Theresa May survive?
As her government becomes engulfed in one crisis after another, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or at least relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of 8.2, the Prime Minister leaving post before the end of the year is still only rated equivalent to a 12% chance but today, January-March 2018 hit its…
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General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play
1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over.…
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Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory
This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party…
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Where are the Labour heavyweights?
When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took…
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Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave
Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions,…
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How long can Jeremy Corbyn survive?
There has been much talk in the USA about the Republicans committing electoral suicide and it seems the phenomenon has spread to the UK Left, with the Labour Party seemingly hell-bent on implosion. Ahead of key elections across the UK on Thursday, Labour are in a terrible place. Ken Livingstone’s suspension amid accusations of anti-semitism…