-
Buckle up for Trump’s dramatic final series
The Republican establishment now believe they have a superior candidate in Ron DeSantis, whose 20% margin re-election in Florida sent the strongest signal possible.
-
2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?
This article first appeared at casino.org on 24th January 2022 The finale is 33 months away but the biggest market in world betting is already heating up. £1.6BN was traded on Betfair when Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off in 2020, smashing the previous all-time record – set by Trump and Hillary Clinton in…
-
Will Joe Biden complete his term, run again or if not, which Democrat might?
This article first appeared at casino.org on Monday 13th September, 2021 In my previous article, I explained how US political betting remains dominated by Donald Trump, his family, and their next moves. Following a tumultuous month, his successor is giving him a run for his money. Perhaps the only similarity between the two men is that,…
-
Five Reasons Why Comparisons Between Biden And Clinton Don’t Stack Up
A critical difference with 2016 is undecideds or third parties. Their figure amounts to just 6.5% compared to 19% at this stage.
-
Where can we find reliable information on the US Election?
If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive.
-
US Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update
“In a more conventional two-horse race than 2016, Trump needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.”
-
Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
-
Why Re-fighting the Last Election Rarely Makes Sense
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th July 2020 Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the 2020 odds and polling models. Current Betfair odds imply a 62% chance of victory for Joe Biden.…
-
How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.
-
Six Reasons Why The 2020 Election Will Be Nothing Like 2016
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 7th July 2020 Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. The Economist/Yougov rate Joe Biden 90% likely to win, compared to a meagre 10% for Donald Trump. Betting signals, however,…