-
Betting plans for the mid-terms and the aftermath
There has never been a mid-term US election like it, whether measured by the nature of the campaign, media coverage, betting or the significance moving forward. Whether it was the Kavanaugh confirmation, Trump’s ever more extreme immigration rhetoric or the tragedies caused by domestic terrorism, the world has been watching America. On Tuesday, we get…
-
How to win money by hedging between Betfair’s Trump specials
Betfair markets related to Donald Trump’s future are kicking off again as FBI investigations into the US President and his closest allies intensifies. At odds of 1.63, the chance of him serving a full first-term in office has slipped to 61% from around 68%. At yesterday’s low point, it was just 58%. As ever with…
-
Prepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears
Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald Trump saga. Bettors following the various Trump Exit Date and 2020 Election markets should be on red alert,…
-
Trump effect looms large over bellweather Virginia race
For all the turbulence in US politics over the last 12 dramatic months, it appears opinion has barely changed. A hypothetical poll taken last week suggests a rematch between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would more or less produce a tie, with the Washington Post concluding the former would probably win again. Considering all the…
-
The tide is turning against Donald Trump
After two years of the unlikeliest front-line political candidate in history repeatedly defying conventional wisdom, expert opinion and betting markets, it is tempting to tire of asking the question. Nevertheless it may be more pertinent than ever. The Trump Impeachment Saga is escalating. In the wake of the latest revelations in the Trump Russia scandal,…
-
Will Donald Trump be forced out early?
Everything about his unique campaign suggested the Trump presidency would not be a conventional one, and so it has proved. A mere 121 days in, Betfair punters are backing him to leave before the end of his first term. Normally at this stage of the election cycle, betting on US politics would be focused on…
-
Romney must be opposed at short odds
There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is both exciting and fraught with danger. Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary…
-
How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets
The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the popular vote by around 2M votes, yet suffer a resounding 306-232 defeat in the electoral college. This isn’t an excuse. I argued many times…
-
5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton
When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position.…
-
Five ways to profit from election side markets
With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage…