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Are Trump’s tax returns merely the first October Surprise?
No US Presidential Election would be complete without at least speculation of the infamous ‘October Surprise’. The gamechanging event, revelation or scandal that transforms the race. Just three days into the month, we already have a prime contender. On Saturday night, the US media went into a frenzy – even momentarily diverting attention from the…
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New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio
Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday. Another #Election2016 bet: 20 units Hillary Clinton @ 1.73 for Betfair's +49.5…
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My trading plan for the electoral college
I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September…
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Trump’s data deficit could cost him the election
Arguably the biggest single reason behind Donald Trump’s successful bid for the Republican nomination was the fact he has never been a politician. In an era when professional politicians and loathed and distrusted like never before, Trump’s outsider status captivated a conservative audience that yearns for someone to shake up the establishment. Entering the final…
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In blowing his best ever news cycle, did Trump just lose the election?
There is no precise, scientific means of explaining what determines elections, opinion polls or betting markets. Each election and each candidate is unique, and even the individual voter cannot reliably explain why they react in a certain way. My belief, held pretty much throughout my adult life based on the experience in England, is that…
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#Election2016 interview with TRT World
On Monday, I spoke to TRT World about the impact of Hillary Clinton’s health scare on the election. I argued that, whilst the belated admission of pneumonia damaged her brand, reinforcing perceptions of secrecy and dishonesty, the incident actually presented an opportunity. If she now issues detailed medical records, it would transfer pressure onto Donald…
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Clinton’s dire weekend may actually work to her advantage
Back in January, when asked to list the ten best political betting markets of all time, I took the liberty of pre-empting this year’s presidential cycle. A safe bet that has more than delivered. After the latest bout of market madness, it deserves to be number one. From the moment news broke about a ‘medical…
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Just how damaged is Hillary Clinton?
She’s been the overwhelming favourite to succeed Barack Obama since Betfair’s Next President market opened, and is the shortest priced ever at this stage of a US election cycle. She couldn’t have handpicked a more toxic opponent than Donald Trump, and enjoys a massive advantage in terms of campaign organisation. Yet Democrats are getting worried…
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5 key stories that could shape the late narrative
In terms of both opinion polls and sentiment on Betfair markets, the race for the presidency is closing fast. Hillary Clinton remains the strongest favourite at this stage of a US election this century, but a bad couple of weeks has seen her odds drift back to roughly where they were in July, before gaining a…
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Traders can still win big from opposing Trump
As illustrated in previous portfolios, my betting plans are not necessarily based on taking a definitive prediction about the result or, in some cases, even taking much of a risk. Rather, the game is to set up a position that is predicted to improve on betting markets over time. Even better, hedge multiple markets against…