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Clinton on the brink of victory but can she unite Democrats?
Next Tuesday, arguably the most memorable primary season in the history of US politics will draw to a conclusion. Whereas the term ‘Super Tuesday’ is normally associated with the slew of key races at the beginning of March that, historically, have proved a decisive moment, the term has been repeatedly used during this cycle and…
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Reflections on that incredible GOP race
In mentioning a profound sense of anti-climax, I probably speak for most political gamblers. A brokered Republican convention, given wall-to-wall media coverage, with endless speculation about rule changes and new candidates would have been a dream scenario, producing volatile markets and countless opportunities to bet. Yet from being rated a near certainty on betting markets…
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Front-runners to regain momentum in New York
When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance…
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Interview with Steve Cheveney for Fox
My second visit to the Fox studios in Washington DC was particularly enjoyable. In this film, I discuss the concept, scale and nature of political betting with Steve Cheveney, in addition to updating the US election odds and forecasting the race ahead. This was the morning of the Fox News Republican Debate from Detroit, about which I correctly…
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Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump
As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to…
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Super Tuesday 3: Bets and predictions
On what feels like it will be the most important night yet of this election, we have ten races to predict and play. Some of the odds have changed in the meantime, but yesterday’s piece offers a brief overview. First, lets start with a bet. Back Ted Cruz to win the Missouri Primary 10 units…
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Five pivotal races for Super Tuesday 3
This year’s US Election cycle differs from the historical norm in so many ways, and not just due to unique candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Normally by mid-March, the parties would be in the process of coalescing around an overwhelmingly likely candidate. This time, with protest and violence at GOP front-runner Trump rallies…
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GOP split as Trump maintains momentum
The 2016 US Election remains the most exciting heat in the history of political betting and the fun has barely started. Mid-March is traditionally the time when the primary races become predictable, with both parties broadly settled on their nominees. This time is completely different. Even the Democrat side, where the market rates Hillary Clinton…
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Two new anti-Trump bets as his bid stalls
We’ve just had four more results in the Republican Nomination process, with two wins apiece for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. I’ve been tweeting all day about it and will doubtless be writing and talking more as the week goes on. We have a pivotal primary to come on Tuesday, in Michigan. Coming off the…
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Clinton v Trump is rated likelier than ever
From being wide-open when the nomination process began three weeks ago, if the betting is any guide, the race for the US presidency increasingly looks like a three-cornered contest. Despite widespread concerns about her campaign, slippage in nationwide polls7 and the ongoing investigation into her e-mails, Hillary Clinton remains rock-solid, odds-on favourite to become the…