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Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging
GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton,…
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Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?
Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked…
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Betting markets take a firm view about Rubio
But will the polls follow suit? After a couple of days digesting the fallout from the latest Republican debate, there are clear conclusions to be drawn regarding who won or lost, whose stock rose or fell. Jeb Bush’s campaign is in total crisis. The longstanding early market favourite was put firmly, embarrassingly in his place…
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Four pointers to watch for in the CNBC Republican debate
1) Is this the night Donald Trump’s abuse wears thin? With less than 100 days until the Iowa Caucus, the race to be the Republican Nominee continues to defy convention, expert opinion and the wishes of the party elite. Few expected 14 candidates to still be on the stage for Wednesday’s third TV debate, live…
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Is this the beginning of the end for Jeb Bush?
One-time favourite is sliding badly on the betting markets From the moment Jeb Bush announced his Presidential bid, boosted by a stack of mega-donors, the former Florida Governor became red-hot favourite on the betting markets to be the Republican candidate. However as in the last two elections, the early money for this market increasingly looks…
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Unarguably, a great day for Donald Trump
Front-runner extends his advantage in slew of new polls Thus far, while Donald Trump’s bid to be the Republican Nominee has dominated the headlines, polls, tone and narrative of that race, betting markets have generally remained sceptical. It is all froth, driven by a media seeking viewers and fundamentally unreliable polls based on name recognition,…
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Marco Rubio is the big market mover on Betfair
Florida senator closes in on Jeb Bush for GOP favouritism With Donald Trump on the wane and Jeb Bush stalling in the race to be Republican nominee, political gamblers have been scratching around for better-priced alternatives. Down the field outsiders Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, recommended here at around 1.5% apiece for the Presidency, are…
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Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites
Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite? Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 Election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field), will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history. The fundamental challenge facing 14…